Gartner’s New Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle is Out! (And It’s More Surprising than Usual)


The newest Gartner Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle came out two days ago.

Gartner’s 2015 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Identifies the Computing Innovations That Organizations Should Monitor: 2015 Hype Cycle Special Report Illustrates the Market Excitement, Maturity and Benefit of More Than 2,000 Technologies http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3114217

I’ve been puzzling over it ever since. I’ve been tracking the Hype Cycle as long as I’ve been working in emerging tech. It’s kind of required. This one was immediately and visibly different from others.

Gartner Hype Cycles Over Time

Do you see what I see? The long tail on the right (“Slope of Enlightenment” and “Plateau of Productivity”) for 2015 is FAR more sparse and empty than the others. Concepts like “speech recognition” and “consumer telematics” are gone. Are they considered mature now? I’m not sure. Things that were in the trough last year and should have theoretically been climbing out this year (like “mobile health monitoring” and “near field communication”) are also gone. A lot of very interesting topics are now missing from the report, but are still not quite ready for prime time.

There is a video on the main Hype Cycle page that hints at a bit of the why.

Hype Cycles 2015: “VP Distinguished Analyst Betsy Burton talks about this year’s Hype Cycle Special Report.” http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/hype-cycles/

Betsy Burton explains that Big Data is gone as a hype cycle report because the concept is in so many places they decided to fold it in to each of those other reports. It’s gone as a dot on the main curve also. Is it no longer relevant to the hype cycle? Far from it. But you have to dig deeper to understand.

“But it’s really important that people DON’T consider a position on the Hype Cycle — in other words, moving towards the peak, or even moving towards the trough — as an indication of maturity. It’s really an expression of what we’re hearing as industry noise.” Betsy Burton on the 2015 Gartner Hype Cycles.

They’ve expanded the way the hype cycle reports give information. It isn’t just about the hype anymore, but each report includes information on the specific technologies, their benefits, their maturity, and how well adapted they are to their market. Does it work? Does it work well? Are people using it? Is it ready? These are considered distinct and separate concepts from reporting about the “hype,” the industry conversations and reporting around any specific tech. She mentioned that the technologies are changing VERY rapidly. True, but does that mean that they are leapfrogging from the trough of disillusionment directly into full production for primetime consumption within a year? That seems unlikely.

The three main categories she mentioned as leading clusters are Bio, Smart, and People-Centric.

BIO = biotech; biochips; bioprinting; human augmentation
SMART = smart advisors; smart cities; smart dust (missing from this year’s list); smart government; smart grid; smart machines; smart robots; connected home; wearable devices in smart government
PEOPLE-CENTRIC = people centric experiences; citizen developer; citizen experience; corporate social responsibility; digital workplace; virtual care

Readers of this blog already heard about DARPAbit (“Biology IS Technology”), so bio is no surprise here. Smart tech we’ve been hearing about for several years. The “People-Centric” is what interested me the most. There was another Gartner piece earlier this year that clarifies this: “Smart Agents Will Drive the Switch From Technology-Literate People, to People-Literate Technology.” They also have another separate hype cycle report on consumer engagement with healthcare and wellness (what most of my friends call the “e-patient movement”).

I’m seeing a great many connections in the new ETech Hype Cycle and healthcare, as well as with libraries. Could we make libraries more “literate” about our patrons? Take a look at the curve at the opening of this post. Anything you’d like me to explore more?

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